By Antonio C. Abaya
Written on Nov. 18, 2009
For the Standard Today,
November 19 issue
In a nationwide survey conducted by Pulse Asia from October 22 to 30, 1,800 respondents were asked to choose their presidential and vice-presidential preferences from a list.
The Liberal Party's Noynoy Aquino topped the poll with a solid 44 percent of the votes, followed by the Nacionalista Party's Manny Villar (19 percent); Chiz Esciudero, formerly of the Nationalist People's Coalition, (13 percent); deposed President Joseph Estrada (11 percent), and incumbent Vice-President Noli de Castro (4 percent).
Bringing up the rear are the PaLaKa Coalition's Gilbert Teodoro (2 percent), MMDA chair Bayani Fernando and TV Evangelist Eddie Villanueva (one percent each). The other contenders were not mentioned at all and were presumably not included in the list.
If one were to compare these October results with the results of Pulse Asia's survey last August, the following developments stand out:
Noynoy Aquino was not yet a declared candidate last August, so his 44 percent in October reflects the sympathy that has attended his sudden rise to political prominence after the death of his mother, the iconic Cory Aquino.
Villar lost six points, from 25 in August to 19 in October. Escudero gained one point, from 12 to 13, but this was before his unexpected resignation from the NPC after he failed to get sufficient funding from the "owner" of the NPC, Danding Cojuangco.
Estrada lost eight points, from 19 to 11, suggesting that he has been fading from the consciousness of even the squealing masa, his vaunted constituency. De Castro lost even more, 12 points, from 16 to 4; his continued silence about his political plans suggest that he has been prevailed upon by the Lopezes not to draw votes away from their favored candidate Noynoy.
Teodoro gained two points, from zero to two, since August. He is so far behind that getting a showbiz celeb like Edu Manzano as his vice-presidential partner is not likely to raise his rating substantially. As the official candidate of the Lakas-Kampi coalition, Teodoro suffers from being the defender and apologist of a very unpopular president.
I would not be surprised if Teodoro were to suddenly abandon his futile presidential quest in the next few months. He is said to have written to his cousin Noynoy that if his run for the presidency were to fizzle out, he (Teodoro) would throw his support behind him (Noynoy).
It can be said that 26 of Noynoy's 44 percentage points came at the expense of Villar (six), Estrada (eight), and De Castro (12). Escudero's apparent withdrawal, ill-advised but made necessary by the facts of life, would benefit Noynoy more than it would Villar, or Estrada. So Noynoy's 44 percent would have been higher had the full impact of Escudero's resignation from the NPC been inputted by the respondents.
I have compared the results of this October Pulse Asia survey with the results of the Social Weather Stations survey of September, in particular the one-choice Private Rider that ran on top of the misleading three-choices main survey.
The results of that one-choice Private Rider were as follows:
Noynoy 51 percent; Villar 20 percent; Estrada 11 percent; and Escudero 8 percent.
Comparing the above with the results of the October Pulse Asia survey, we can see that Noynoy has dropped seven points (51-44), Villar has remained steady (19-20), Estrada has also remained steady (11-11), Escudero has gained five points (8-13).
But since Escudero has apparently withdrawn from the race, one must consider whom his supporters will transfer their loyalty to. My guess is that Noynoy will be the main beneficiary, not Villar or Estrada.
In the vice-presidential race, the survey results showed preference for Mar Roxas (37 percent), Loren Legarda (23 percent), Jejomar Binay (13 percent), which more or less reflects the preferences for their presidential partners. Edu Manzano did not appear in the list as his designation as Teodoro's VP partner came much later than the survey.
So the 2010 elections will be between Noynoy-Roxas, Villar-Legarda, and Estrada-Binay, with Teodoro-Manzano playing the role of Beedlebum.
Noynoy's 44 percent, to be supplemented with former supporters of Escudero, appears insurmountable. But the campaign has six more months to run and anything can still happen. In particular, now that the jockeying for position is almost over, the hard part begins.
Candidates must now focus on their stands on the issues of the day. What do they propose to do to stimulate the economy and generate jobs? What is their unequivocal position on population management? On the Visiting Forces Agreement? On the festering separatist problem in Mindanao? On land reform? How do they propose to solve the recurrent problem of flooding, in the light of climate change and the likelihood of more extreme weather conditions? Any bright ideas on how to curb urban pollution?
Where do they stand on the issue of electoral reforms? Constitutional reforms? Judicial reforms? Educational reforms?
They have an obligation to give categorical and specific answers to these and other problems, not generalized motherhood statements that people have gotten tired of hearing. The onus is greatest on Noynoy Aquino, Manny Villar and Joseph Estrada, as they seem to be the leading contenders who will battle it out at the polls on May 10, 2010.
And then, of course, there is the matter of dirty tricks. Already there are insinuations that Noynoy Aquino is autistic. There will be more of this black propaganda as Election Day nears.
During the 1992 presidential elections, Miriam Defensor Santiago led in most surveys and straw votes, up to the very last week before Election Day. She was topping 45 percent in public opinion surveys. Then, in the week before Election Day, Metro Manila was suddenly flooded with black propaganda alleging that she has had a history of psychiatric treatment. She was labeled 'Brenda' (for 'brain-damaged').
It was too late for her to riposte the unverified allegations about her. This, plus massive cheating in Mindanao, spelled the doom of her presidential campaign.
Will we see a repeat in 2010? *****
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